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  1. #1
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Default Alternative Premier League Table

    The Alternative Premier League Table 2012-13

    This is a continuation of the original APLT thread which ran last season and can be found here:https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/...p?topic=278916. The blog I used to write occasional summaries (until I lost all faith in January) can be found here: rawkprof.blogspot.co.uk

    For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points of the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. I refer to these as the ‘par results’. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

    The fixture list below for the top seven teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



    As with last season, Liverpool have a difficult opening run of fixtures, with all of their first seven away matches being par 1s. For Liverpool, 28 points from the first 14 matches will be ‘title winning form’ assuming the APLT model is correct.

    As a contrast; Chelsea, Man City, Spurs and Newcastle all have four par 1s, with Man Utd and Arsenal both having five par 1s in the opening 14 matches. Therefore, Liverpool could be between 4 and 6 points worse off to their rivals at this point, but with ‘more-winnable’ matches remaining in their fixture list, this gap could be closed.

    This means that the APLT will place Liverpool higher in the table than in the real league table early in the season to reflect their more difficult start to the season.

    If you have any doubts about the reliability of the model, the tables below show the results of the 26 par 3s and 12 par 1s for each of the six originally featured teams.



    As I illustrated in depth last season, the predictability of results in the par 1s is actually quite low (title winning teams over achieve as a rule to offset dropped points in the par 3 matches), but title winning teams must win most if not all of their par 3 matches. Last season, Man City won 24 out of their 26 par 3s (they drew at home to Sunderland and lost away at Swansea – not exactly the most predictable banana skins if the pars are assigned before the season starts).

    Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points and positive gradient.



    The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish. Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

    I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season. If we don’t win away at West Brom in match 1, it isn’t a complete disaster.



    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  2. #2
    Grime Forum OG Sosa's Avatar
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    :woah:

  3. #3
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    I didn't do it tbh. I just find it interesting.

    Can see how from game 28 we done fucked up
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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    Grime Forum OG Super Moderator Mazer Rackham's Avatar
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    will wake up properly, come back and read again
    Quote Originally Posted by Burden Durden View Post
    You sound like Kermit the Frog fam.
    Quote Originally Posted by CatchACat View Post
    @Mazer Rackham is a shit troll and clueless guy tbh.

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    Grime Forum Don
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    Posting to remind myself to read


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

  6. #6
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Chelsea's line is exactly the same as Man City's which is why you can't see it.

    Man U have started impeccably.

    We've continued our form from last season and are already freefalling.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  7. #7
    MoneyMan's Avatar
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    Utd have lost already though. They'll lose to City (twice), Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and at least 3 more small teams this season imo.

    Don't even care about us lol no stats can save us I just hope and pray one day, one day god let us hit the net. Not the post, or bar, or other post - just the back of the net.

    KthanxbaiGod.
    THFC > LFC

    I must keep this avatar and sig untill further notice for losing a bet enforced by Hij.

  8. #8
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Yeah it's more for interest throughout a season than an actual analytical tool. Man U have won three of their winnable games and as evidenced above, winning the 'easy' games are the ones that bring the league home.



    You can see how we (Liverpool) do very poorly against the opposition that Man U/Man City beat week in week out.

    Liverpool did better than Spurs, Chelsea and Man City against the teams where you can gain points via this method (hard away games). But that isn't enough on its own to even finish fourth
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  9. #9
    Grime Forum OG Clive Eboue's Avatar
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    Interesting stuff. Not going to lie though when I saw the thread title I thought it was going to be a table showing where Liverpool would have finished last season if they had scored instead of hitting the woodwork lol
    Quote Originally Posted by Shanger View Post
    spurs r world class at makin prem teams look like barca
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Kebab needs to start showing me some respect tbh I'm 2 shades darker then Moh, have a season ticket and I get the pints in all day #DadOfTheYear

  10. #10
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Nah nah.

    BTW it is fallible. But it's basically the sort of results you would expect to get in order to win the league (with the 71 points thing added on to show the sort of line needed to qualify for Champions league). 71 points is normally guaranteed top four- but the teams that stay close to that line will be in the hunt.

    Obviously by the end of the season it will be the actual league table as well.

    Last seasons graph shows how we completely fell off from about game 19
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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    Super Moderator The Messiah's Avatar
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    I remember this from last season...

    Be interesting to keep an eye on this rather than the league table, because currently I think it's about right in terms of who has had a good start to the season...
    Quote Originally Posted by SKENGMAN MODE View Post
    your not real life... just something of the internet

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    Hibernating iSupport Jay's Avatar
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    Well looking at last years, between game 10 and 15 is when we'll know who will stay up there.

  13. #13
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Looks like it's a three horse race already. Everton are on -5 so far





    3 points in the race for 4th.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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    BIGDON's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyMan View Post
    Utd have lost already though. They'll lose to City (twice), Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and at least 3 more small teams this season imo.

    Don't even care about us lol no stats can save us I just hope and pray one day, one day god let us hit the net. Not the post, or bar, or other post - just the back of the net.

    KthanxbaiGod.
    lul
    Quote Originally Posted by Prophet Dan View Post
    im noting this down by the way. dont think i will forget.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mastabas View Post
    Why is narturo so gassed?
    Man thinks he is a turkish trey songz

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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDON View Post

    Close season spend, 4 mil, current position, 5th. Boom.

  17. #17
    MoneyMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FoundTheGif View Post
    lul
    Fair enough I never anticipated Arsenal's shitness continuing but you honestly don't think you'll lose those fixtures this season?

    You never thought you'd get parred by Blackburn/Bilbao/Basel various other B teams last season either mate.
    THFC > LFC

    I must keep this avatar and sig untill further notice for losing a bet enforced by Hij.

  18. #18
    Grime Forum Regular FoundTheGif's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyMan View Post
    Fair enough I never anticipated Arsenal's shitness continuing but you honestly don't think you'll lose those fixtures this season?

    You never thought you'd get parred by Blackburn/Bilbao/Basel various other B teams last season either mate.
    Yes. Reckon we could win all 3 teams, in bold. two will be at home, one will be away.
    Quote Originally Posted by Prophet Dan View Post
    im noting this down by the way. dont think i will forget.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mastabas View Post
    Why is narturo so gassed?
    Man thinks he is a turkish trey songz

  19. #19
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hij View Post
    Looks like it's a three horse race already. Everton are on -5 so far





    3 points in the race for 4th.
    This shows more and more a 3 horse. Ill post up when I'm on pc
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  20. #20
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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