Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during
a season, as they donít take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.
Iíve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.
There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and donít win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well. https://img841.imageshack.us/img841/4...ctedpoints.jpg
In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.
* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).
During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.
To get things going, this is a graph to illustrate how Liverpoolís and Man UtdĎs fixtures differ during the coming season. It shows that Man Utdís first half of the season has more 3-point pars than ours. In fact, if we are within 6 points of them after 16 games, we would, in theory, be ahead of them.