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  1. #1
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Default Alternative Premier League Table

    This is by some other dude. It counts for fuck all but I find it interesting and it relates to something Plak said in a different thread

    Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they donít take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.

    Iíve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.

    There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and donít win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well. https://img841.imageshack.us/img841/4...ctedpoints.jpg

    In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.

    * I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).

    During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.

    To get things going, this is a graph to illustrate how Liverpoolís and Man UtdĎs fixtures differ during the coming season. It shows that Man Utdís first half of the season has more 3-point pars than ours. In fact, if we are within 6 points of them after 16 games, we would, in theory, be ahead of them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  2. #2
    Super Moderator The Messiah's Avatar
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    Nice concept.
    Quote Originally Posted by SKENGMAN MODE View Post
    your not real life... just something of the internet

  3. #3
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Btw I love how he uses drawing at Norwich at home as a "2 over par result" - predicted the future

    Quote Originally Posted by The Messiah View Post
    Nice concept.
    He's edited the method as the season went on to include 71 points as an arbitrary target for 4th, let me find the table. Here's the table thus far. Like all tables I reckon it will give a fuller picture nearer to Christmas.

    Interestingly, based on results needed in the system, all teams are on course for 71 bar Chelsea at the minute - might be one of them seasons where the top teams win overall than the teams below them. The reason Liverpool are relatively ok in this chart and not the table is based on us doing well with our start, where we have achieved wins at places where 1 point is par. E.g - going to Chelsea and taking 1 point is considered a par. Think of it as the opposite to golf.

    The key test like Plak says comes where we need to beat Fulham at home on a 3 point par (expected/required win to maintain push). E.G We would need 3 points against Fulham at home, just to maintain our position in the table below- any draw would see us lose 2 points to par and we'd slip down the table. Also only United out of the top 6 have come to Anfield so far (we lost 2 points on this table against United).

    City are doing phenomenal but remember none of the big teams have come to the Etithad yet and all of them will be a 3 point par. e.g If they play Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea, Tottenham - win 3, draw 1 and lose 1 - they'll actually lose 4 points on this table.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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    Super Moderator The Messiah's Avatar
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    So based on this Chelsea are the ones most in trouble currently... Interesting...
    Quote Originally Posted by SKENGMAN MODE View Post
    your not real life... just something of the internet

  5. #5
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Messiah View Post
    So based on this Chelsea are the ones most in trouble currently... Interesting...
    Here is the fixture list for it. The coloured in ones are the ones where you can birdie a game and gain ground (this is in regards the 90 points total, but the line is there for 71 anyway for reference). E.G Arsenal go to City in gameweek 16. A win for Arsenal would be a birdie and +2 points on the graph. This would be -3 for City.

    It's interesting because according to the fixtures will peak on this table at about the 20th game. The most we can drop is 6 points from then on, or we will definitely start sliding as all the other games are par 3 - e.g we need to keep winning them.

    Although clearly, we aren't going to win the league- this is relevant more so for United and City. But we need to keep ourselves above the 71 point line by the end of the season.

    And to take Arsenal for example, you have par 3's against Fulham, Wigan and Everton before you go to City. For instance, you could win those three, lose to City (losing 1 point) and beat Villa (gaining 2 points), and on that table above, you'd move up 1 point.



    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  6. #6
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    Liverpools line on the graph looks like a heart monitor

  7. #7
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RealOnRoad View Post
    Liverpools line on the graph looks like a heart monitor
    Because we draw against Swansea, but then make up the lost points against Chelsea etc.

    On RAWK they say it looks like London Underground lol
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

  8. #8
    Grime Forum Manager Administrator Hij's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack 1017 View Post
    Suarez is probably the best player in the world

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